Iran-US talks in Oman; A new opportunity or a repeat of a failed experience?

Although these talks are conducted with an emphasis on confidentiality, they have received widespread coverage in the world media and have been considered as one of the important geopolitical developments in West Asia. This article attempts to examine, with an analytical perspective, the various dimensions of these talks, the causes and motives, Iran’s bargaining power, and its impact on the region, especially Afghanistan.

 

Bitter experiences of the past; Why optimism in negotiations should not be premature?

 

The Islamic Republic of Iran has had the experience of negotiating with the United States many times over the past four decades. The latest example was the 2015 JCPOA, which was reached after intensive and costly negotiations, but was effectively nullified by the unilateral withdrawal of the United States during the presidency of Donald Trump.

 

This experience showed that the United States easily withdraws from international agreements, even if these agreements have been approved with the support of the UN Security Council. Accordingly, Iranian officials and many political elites in the country have warned against any excessive optimism regarding new negotiations.

 

On the other hand, there is no binding guarantee in the new negotiations that Washington will not repeat its previous breaches. Even the American media admits that the political structure of the United States, especially on the eve of the elections, has cast a shadow on the country’s strategic decisions.

 

The United States under pressure, Iran has entered with a regional strategy

The Donald Trump administration has entered this round of talks while under severe domestic and foreign pressure. On the one hand, pressure from Democrats and social activists in the United States to renew its aggressive policies in West Asia, and on the other hand, global crises such as Ukraine, Taiwan, and the Gaza war have created a tense atmosphere for the United States.

 

Unlike the United States, Iran has entered negotiations without immediate pressure. The “Look East” policy, expanding cooperation with China and Russia, membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS, and increasing interactions with neighbors have strengthened Tehran’s position compared to the past. This difference in position means that Iran has greater maneuverability in the negotiations.

 

Iran has taken a cautious step and has put forward clear conditions based on national interests: lifting sanctions, implementing guarantees for a new agreement, and preserving nuclear achievements. In fact, Tehran is trying to steer the negotiations in a direction that will not only ease tensions, but also secure economic and strategic interests.

 

Components of Iran's Power Against Western Propaganda Pressure

Western media and regional hostile media have always tried to portray Iran in a weak position. Including efforts to incite internal disputes, weaken the government, blacken the economic situation, and create a gap between the people and the government. But the reality is that Iran has been able to strengthen its structure in recent years and resist pressure.

 

Iran's military deterrence capability, coherence in foreign policy, and intelligent use of regional alliances are all important elements of the Islamic Republic of Iran's soft and hard power. These factors have stabilized

 

Also, contrary to Western media claims, the Iranian government has succeeded in establishing relative stability in the country by containing internal fluctuations, managing economic crises, and maintaining popular participation. These cases show that Iran has entered the talks with full hands, not out of urgency or weakness.

 

Iran and the Multilateralism Strategy

One of the important differences between this round of negotiations and the previous ones is Iran’s attitude towards the structure of the international system. Iran no longer sees only the US or Europe as a priority. Instead, it is pursuing a multi-axis foreign policy by strengthening relations with Russia, China, India and the countries of Central Asia.

 

Also, membership in organizations such as Shanghai and BRICS has practically strengthened Iran’s position in multilateral formats. These memberships have allowed Iran to appear alongside the world’s economic and military giants from an equal position and with a variety of cards in international interactions.

 

In addition, Tehran has expanded its economic and transit interactions with countries in the region, and now projects such as the Eastern Railway, the North-South Corridor and the connection of Chabahar Port to Central Asia are considered effective alternatives to a unilateral focus on the West.

 

Implications of the negotiations for the region and Afghanistan

One of the most important areas that will benefit from the reduction of tensions between Iran and the United States is Afghanistan. Iran is one of the main economic players in Afghanistan and, if sanctions are eased, can increase its investment and trade in our country.

 

On the other hand, stability in relations between Tehran and Washington can affect regional security. Reducing tensions in the Persian Gulf and Iran's eastern borders will bring stability to Central Asia and facilitate economic and security cooperation. In such circumstances, Kabul can also benefit from regional projects.

 

In addition, Iran's return to extensive international interactions provides new opportunities for economic cooperation, energy transfer, transit trade and attracting investment in Afghanistan. 

They should carefully monitor this space.

 

Final words:

Taking into account all aspects, it can be said that the Iran-US talks in Oman are a new opportunity to reduce tensions, but the condition for their success is a realistic approach, securing national interests, and avoiding premature trust. The Islamic Republic of Iran has entered this path with experience and authority and is trying to reach a lasting solution instead of a fleeting agreement.

 

The people of the region, especially in our country, Afghanistan, should know that these talks are neither the end of the road nor a miracle, but rather part of a complex and long process in the international system that is proceeding with patience, prudence, and strength.

 

Seyyed Hassan Hosseini