Amidst the increasing tensions between Iran and the United States and the possibility of indirect talks between the two countries in Oman, Dr. Seyed Ali Mousavi Chakavak, an analyst of international affairs, in an exclusive interview with AVA, examining the various dimensions of the conflict and its civilizational, political and military contexts, believes that an agreement or non-agreement between Tehran and Washington will have direct and indirect effects on the region, especially Afghanistan. Chakavak explicitly rejects the possibility of a direct war between Iran and the United States and says that Iran's defense and military capabilities have grown in such a way that no power, not even the United States, dares to attack directly.
Publish dateFriday 11 April 2025 - 21:27
Story Code : 312386
Dr. Mousavi Chakavak stated in an exclusive interview with AVA:
America will not enter the war out of fear of Iran's military power/Agreement or non-agreement will have direct effects on Afghanistan
Afghan Voice Agency (AVA) - Kabul: As political and military tensions between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran increase, as well as the possibility of indirect talks between the two countries in Oman, Dr. Seyed Ali Mousavi Chakavak, a writer and expert on political and international issues, discussed the goals of the talks between Washington and Tehran, the consequences of these talks on Afghanistan, and the possibility of a military conflict between Iran and the United States in an exclusive interview with AVA News Agency.
Dr. Seyed Ali Mousavi Chakavak says that what is happening between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States is not simply a political or military dispute, but rather a confrontation between two civilizations: “One is the Islamic civilization based on divine and human values, and the other is the Western liberal civilization centered on economics, capitalism, and domination.”
He emphasizes that “civilizations do not converse with each other, but have always been in conflict,” and cites examples from history such as the confrontation between Greek and Roman civilizations, and Islamic and industrial Western civilizations.
Dr. Chakavak states that the JCPOA experience is over and cannot be repeated. In his view, Donald Trump’s cancellation of the JCPOA was not only the end of a political agreement, but also the end of a diplomatic path. Referring to the words of the Iranian leader who said, “You tear up the JCPOA, we will set fire to it,” he concludes that the case is closed forever.
China, Russia, Iran; The Emergence of New Civilizational Powers
Chakavak points to the new global conditions and says, “The world is no longer the world it was 20 years ago.” He mentions Russia as a new global power after the Soviet Union and China as the world’s leading economy, adding that Iran is also an influential power in the region and the world. In his opinion, each of these countries has its own concerns and interests that have led them to enter into tension or competition with the United States.
Negotiations in Oman; Hope or a Repeat of Failed Experiences?
Chakavak views the possible negotiations in Oman with skepticism. He says that although meetings between Iran and the United States, directly or indirectly, may take place, even if an agreement is reached, it will be a long and challenging path.
The political analyst notes that the power structure and civilizational goals of the two countries are such that the likelihood of reaching a lasting agreement is very low.
The impact of negotiations on the region and Afghanistan
According to Chakavak, Afghanistan has always been affected by regional and global events. In the event of an agreement or lack of an agreement between Iran and the United States, political and security changes in the region could have direct effects on Afghanistan and countries aligned with the Islamic Republic.
He calls Donald Trump a “merchant” and believes that “it is easier to make a deal with Trump than with Biden and the Democrats.” He emphasizes that the Democrats act on the basis of a school and ideology, while Trump is simply looking for a deal; this could pave the way for a possible agreement with Iran.
From the perspective of this international affairs expert, if an agreement is reached between the two countries, the greatest benefit will accrue to the United States. He says that such an agreement will be a propaganda achievement for Trump or the US government and can be presented as containing Iran, ending the war in Ukraine, and consolidating US power in the world. Also, economic sanctions on Iran will probably be reduced.
He says with certainty: “The US will never enter into a direct war with Iran.” He adds that Iran’s defense and military capabilities have grown in such a way that no power, not even the US, dares to attack directly. He considers the possibility of war to be propaganda by Western media that is only to create a psychological atmosphere.
Dr. Seyed Ali Mousavi Chakavak emphasized at the end of the conversation that an agreement between Iran and the US, even if it is reached, will be a temporary and fragile agreement.
According to him, the clash of civilizations, conflicting value structures, and different strategic goals will prevent such an agreement from leading to lasting peace.
These statements come at a time when the US President recently announced his readiness to start direct talks with Iran, but warned that if the talks fail, Iran will face a “great danger.” In contrast, Iran has emphasized that it is only willing to hold indirect talks through intermediaries such as Oman and will not give in to any threats.
In this regard, an indirect meeting between US and Iranian representatives is scheduled to be held in Oman on Saturday. At the same time, the US Treasury Department has imposed new sanctions on Iran, and Donald Trump has threatened that “military force will be used if necessary,” although he emphasized that “Israel will be on the front line, but we will make our own decisions.”
Meanwhile, There have been reports that the US moved B-2 bombers to Diego Garcia in March, and analysts are seeing the move as a show of strength and a move to put more pressure on Tehran.
The Telegraph recently reported that Iran has warned that the Diego Garcia base in the Chagos Archipelago will be targeted if Britain cooperates with the US against Tehran.
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