Afghan Voice Agency (AVA): According to the Financial Times, the question is currently being asked whether US President Donald Trump is planning to overthrow the Venezuelan government? Deploying three destroyers, an amphibious assault ship, a guided missile cruiser, a nuclear submarine and an F-35 squadron right next to Venezuela certainly creates this impression. Add to this military presence 6,500 Navy and Marines.
No drug interdiction operation requires such large-scale military support. On the other hand, Trump is doing flashy things for show and to show off; you can ask the 800 or so American generals and admirals who were summoned from around the world last week to listen to his ramblings. Right now, Venezuela is a “Schrödinger” war for Trump; it is neither happening nor not. But direct conflict seems very close.
Venezuela is an irresistible temptation for Trump as an enemy. In his mind, Caracas plays the leading role in the chaos of America’s urban “war zones,” where he has deployed National Guard troops. After Los Angeles and Washington, D.C., Memphis, Chicago, and Portland are now the latest hotbeds of domestic unrest.
Last week’s military raid on a Chicago apartment complex targeted the Venezuelan gang “Tren de Aragua”; The gang, which Trump claims is led by Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, who in his mind is the most vile thief in the Venezuelan tyrant’s government, is a group that has little evidence to suggest that it is accountable to Maduro. But Tran de Aragua is the inside of Trump’s coin, and Venezuela is the outside.
Venezuela is not even remotely like the largest supplier of drugs to the United States. Yet Trump and his arrogant self-styled “Secretary of War,” Pete Hegsett, insist that the country is fueling America’s drug epidemic. None of the fentanyl in the United States comes from Venezuela; almost all of it comes from Mexico. Colombia is the largest source of cocaine for the United States. In recent weeks, the United States has sunk Venezuelan boats in the Caribbean four times, allegedly carrying drugs, leaving more than 20 dead. Trump claims that bags of fentanyl and cocaine were “strewn all over the ocean,” but no evidence has been provided!
To be fair, Trump doesn’t need any evidence. The most trivial excuses will suffice. The Supreme Court has so far shown little resistance to Trump. It’s impossible to imagine that this institution would oversee his foreign policy any more than it does his civil war. In other words, Trump can spin any story he wants along the way. Every time a Venezuelan boat sinks, Trump claims to have saved 25,000 American lives!
Last year, 54,743 Americans died from drug use. Even if Trump’s higher, fanciful figure of 300,000 deaths per year from drug use is true, 12 Venezuelan speedboats could supply all the drugs American addicts consume and justify their deaths. He doesn’t even pretend to believe these numbers and make them up!
The most likely guess is that Trump has not yet decided whether to directly attack Venezuela. Some of his inner circle, notably his Secretary of State Marco Rubio, are seeking to change the Venezuelan political system. Others, including Richard Grenell, who is both Trump’s envoy for Venezuela and the director of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts (one of the strangest dual jobs in history), prefer to negotiate. Both of them know that Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world. US Attorney General Pam Bundy recently doubled the bounty on Maduro’s head to $50 million. The stage is set and the mise-en-scenes are set for Trump’s show war.
Trump has no interagency policymaking process. His administration is made up of loyalists who compete to be “more Trumpian” than their opponents, and their work is easier when they know what Trump wants. Of course, they sometimes guess wrong. In July, Hegsett stopped sending arms to Ukraine, only to find out that Trump still didn’t want it.
His decision was humiliatingly reversed and the arms shipments resumed. Since then, Hegsett has gone to great lengths to please Trump, including ordering four televised raids on unidentified Venezuelan boats. Trump is so pleased with the response to these seemingly risk-free fireworks that he seems to have grown fond of them and savored them.
What makes this new taste dangerous, however, is that Trump sees escalation as a “chant.” Maduro may be leaning on Russia and China, but the Venezuelan people are fighting against American imperialism. It is one of those bitter ironies that Trump’s “maximum pressure” on Venezuela is fueling a massive exodus of migrants from it, including to the United States. Trump is fueling a problem that He claims to be fighting it, and this only makes sense if he has lied about his real goal.