National Interest: Strait of Hormuz is under Iranian control/No bypass

Afghan Voice Agency (AVA) - International Service: The report continues: The Strait of Hormuz is the only sea route from the Persian Gulf to the ocean routes and the place where 20 million barrels of oil per day are transported, along with large amounts of natural gas. Oil pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE can only transport a limited part of this amount, making bypassing the Strait of Hormuz an impractical option.

 

Iran has strengthened its military position through its bases in Bandar Abbas and islands located in the Strait of Hormuz, such as Qasm and Lark. For Tehran, it is enough to make the passage through the Strait of Hormuz so expensive that insurance companies cannot afford it.

 

There are three scenarios for the future of the Strait of Hormuz; first, Iran allows ships from some countries such as China, Russia, Turkey, India, Pakistan, Iraq, etc. to pass through and impose restrictions on ships from Western countries. Second, the United States opens the Strait with military force, which is practically impossible given the geographical location of the region. The US attacks on Iranian positions have not brought the situation back to its previous state, and targeting military bases does not mean taking control of the Strait. Iran can recover its non-classical power more quickly than the US attacks. The US plan to escort ships has also failed due to the lack of regional and international support.

 

The third scenario also involves the opening of the Strait of Hormuz with some consequences remaining. Lifting sanctions on Iran in response to its nuclear commitments and ensuring freedom of movement for ships could be the basis for a lasting agreement. During the previous agreement, we saw ships moving through the Strait for a short time. The United States must admit that military superiority has not been effective in resolving this conflict and that a political solution is the only path to resolving the crisis.