With the US Congressional midterm elections on November 3 approaching and 66 days left until they are held, the latest data from prediction markets shows a clear advantage for Democrats in the race for the House of Representatives.
Publish dateSaturday 29 August 2026 - 20:53
Story Code : 364191
Afghan Voice Agency (AVA) - International Service: According to data from the Kalshi platform, the Democrats' chance of winning a majority in the House of Representatives has reached 84%, while this chance for Republicans is only 16%.
In the race for the Senate, the situation is much more sensitive. Republicans, with a 51% chance, are on the verge of maintaining their current 53-47 majority, and Democrats, with a 49% chance, need to win critical races in states such as North Carolina and Ohio to change the balance of power in this chamber.
The recovery of this gap in the popular vote, which according to polls shows Democrats in a better position by between 1 and 6 percentage points, as well as a 16-fold increase in the number of prediction markets compared to the previous period, suggests that the sharp decline in Donald Trump's popularity (about 36 percent) and public dissatisfaction with the war with Iran and the rise in oil prices have seriously damaged the Republicans' chances of maintaining control of both chambers.
However, analysts believe that if the Democrats win the House of Representatives, the Trump administration will face two years of investigations and a deadlock on its agenda.
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