Oil Prices Surge 3.6%, Surpassing $105

Afghan Voice Agency (AVA) – International Service: Oil prices climbed above the psychological $100 mark today as the market remains influenced by geopolitical risks in West Asia. Brent crude had also closed above $100 on Wednesday, reaching the $101 range. According to market participants, ongoing tensions between Washington and Tehran and concerns regarding oil supply disruptions are the primary factors supporting prices.

 

The latest shipping data indicates that vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is well below normal levels; only seven ships passed through the route on Wednesday. Prior to the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz facilitated the transport of approximately one-fifth of the global oil and gas supply, and the reduction in oil flow through this waterway has heightened concerns about supply constraints.

 

Pressure on regional supply is not limited to the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia announced that its oil production in August fell to 6.2 million barrels per day—the lowest level of the year and a 23% decrease from July. Saudi crude oil exports also dropped to approximately 3.1 million barrels per day in August. This decline has been attributed to restricted export routes and escalating threats from Yemen.

 

Under these circumstances, the oil market will remain sensitive in the short term to news regarding the U.S.-Iran conflict, maritime security, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. If disruptions to Persian Gulf oil exports persist, the likelihood of oil prices remaining above $100 increases. Conversely, any de-escalation of tensions and the gradual resumption of oil tanker traffic could strip part of the risk premium from oil prices.