Seyed Hamed Amini/ After the Islamic Emirate came to power again in 2021, Afghanistan has once again become the center of regional and international competition. Different countries are seeking influence in the country with various goals, including securing their political, economic, security and ideological interests. Foreign influence in Afghanistan can be analyzed and evaluated on both sides of the same coin; first, if it is carried out with a positive and constructive approach to help the government and people of Afghanistan improve the economic situation and investment in the country, enhance religious, cultural and civilizational capacities, as well as prevent destructive interventions by other countries and powers and support stability in the country, it will naturally have many positive consequences, but on the other side of the coin, if it is carried out with a negative and destructive approach, it can have widespread negative consequences for political stability, national security and the country's independent sovereignty, as well as weakening cultural values and religious beliefs. In this note, the various dimensions of foreign influence, its reasons and strategies to counter this issue are examined.
Publish dateThursday 6 February 2025 - 15:24
Story Code : 306929
Reasons for Foreign Influence in Afghanistan
Looking at the developments in the past few decades in the country, the reasons for foreign influence can be explained in the following frameworks:
1. Combating terrorism:
Various countries, especially the United States and its allies, have justified their intervention in Afghanistan under the guise of combating terrorism and preventing the spread of extremist groups. The September 11, 2001 attacks were a turning point in Western policies that led to the start of the war in Afghanistan and the occupation of the country for more than 20 years. This military presence of foreign countries could not completely reduce terrorist threats, but rather created new threats such as the creation of the ISIS group and its Khorasan branch. Some regional countries, such as Pakistan, have also used extremist groups as a tool to pressure their rivals. In this regard, military and intelligence cooperation between Western countries and some regional countries is under discussion.
2. Weakening rival powers:
Global and regional rivalries, especially between China, the United States, and Russia, as well as Arab countries and Iran, have fueled influence in Afghanistan. These rivalries are evident not only in economic and military fields but also in areas of political and ideological influence.
In the meantime, alongside the positive approach of some countries, Afghanistan has been the site of invasion by global superpowers from Britain to the Soviet Union and then the United States of America, which have invaded and conquered Afghanistan in line with their regional and global strategic interests, which of course resulted in historical defeat and an ignominious exit from the country.
3. Human rights and social issues:
Western countries, especially in recent decades, have had political and social interventions in the areas of human rights and women's rights that go against Afghanistan's religious and cultural values and beliefs. In this regard, international organizations and non-governmental institutions have sought to promote human rights and establish laws related to social and economic freedoms in Afghanistan based on vulgar Western culture and secularism. For this reason, this issue has caused various religious, ethnic and cultural groups to face this invasion. Of course, Afghanistan has also faced challenges and problems in the field of access of the people of the country, especially girls and women, to their basic and fundamental rights, including education, especially in the past three years, which must be addressed based on high Islamic and human values.
4. Strategic geography:
Afghanistan's position as a bridge between Central Asia, the Middle East and South Asia has made it one of the key points for great powers and neighboring countries. Geopolitical competitions between the United States and Russia, India and Pakistan, as well as China's special attention to Afghanistan in line with its economic and military strategies, have increased the importance of this position. Afghanistan plays a vital role in the region’s infrastructure and economic projects as a land connection and transit point for energy and natural resources.
5. Natural resources:
Afghanistan’s mineral reserves, estimated to be worth several trillion dollars, are among the biggest reasons for foreign intervention. China and other industrialized countries are seeking access to these resources to meet their needs in the fields of technology and energy. In addition, Afghanistan’s economic fields, especially in the fields of agriculture and water resources, are also of strategic importance to neighboring countries such as Iran and Pakistan. Of course, Afghanistan has designed mechanisms to welcome investment from various countries and powers in its natural and mineral resources.
6. Drug trade:
6. Drug trade:
As the world’s largest producer of opium during the occupation of the country by the US and NATO, Afghanistan has been and continues to be a gateway for drug trafficking to Western and Asian countries. In this context, many countries have taken advantage of this illegal trade to consolidate their economic and political influence in Afghanistan. This trade has not only helped provide financial resources for militant and terrorist groups, but has also played a prominent role in the domestic and foreign policies of some countries.
7. Humanitarian aid:
Various countries and international organizations such as the United Nations, the Red Cross, and other charitable institutions have sent humanitarian aid to Afghanistan. This aid has played a key role in humanitarian crises and civil wars. However, in some cases, humanitarian aid has become a tool for exerting political, cultural, and even religious influence. For example, at different times, donor countries have used this aid as a tool for economic and political pressure on Afghan governments.
8. Cultural and ideological influence:
Many foreign countries, especially Arab and Western countries, have tried to expand their cultural and ideological influence in Afghanistan. This influence has been achieved through the establishment of religious schools, educational centers, and financial assistance to specific intellectual and religious groups, especially in the border areas with Pakistan. These functions have sometimes been used as a tool to influence the younger generations and form specific political and religious identities in Afghanistan. In this context, especially during the two decades of occupation of the country by the United States and NATO, we have witnessed two areas of cultural and ideological influence in the country; On the one hand, the invasion of Western culture and secularism, and on the other hand, the influence and promotion of Wahhabi-Salafi ideas, which, especially in the latter influence, groups such as the Khorasan branch of ISIS were able to recruit soldiers from among the people and even from among university professors and students.
In general, the influence of foreign countries in Afghanistan is not limited to geopolitical and security reasons alone, but also includes economic, social, cultural and ideological dimensions, which has created many complications in the internal developments of Afghanistan.
Policies, goals and approaches of each country to influence Afghanistan
1. Pakistan:
Pakistan has always been one of the main players in Afghan politics and has tried to create instability in the country by supporting opposition groups in every period of the country's political life. Pakistan has used various groups as a tool to secure its illegitimate interests in the region and to confront alleged threats. One of Pakistan's most important concerns is the fate of the historical and colonial Durand Line and its subordinate territories, which actually belong to Afghanistan. Therefore, it is always seeking to influence and create insecurity in Afghanistan to prevent the formation of a powerful government that does not get the opportunity to raise the Durand Line.
2. China:
China is seeking to secure its economic and strategic interests in Afghanistan. China is trying to gain access to the country's rich natural resources by developing its infrastructure projects in Afghanistan and the region. Afghanistan has rich mineral resources, including copper, lithium, and other minerals, which China can exploit to strengthen its infrastructure and energy-intensive industries.
Projects such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) allow China to use Afghanistan as a bridge to access Central Asian and Middle Eastern markets. Creating an economic corridor that facilitates China's access to the Middle East, Central Asia, and even Europe is one of China's key goals in Afghanistan.
China is also seeking to strengthen political and economic cooperation with the Islamic Emirate to counter Western influence, especially the United States, as well as the fight against the East Turkestan terrorist group and the Uyghurs in Afghanistan.
3. Russia:
Russia is trying to prevent the expansion of American and NATO influence in Afghanistan. It strengthened its relations with Afghanistan, especially in the period after the fall of the Islamic Emirate in 2001. With the return of the Islamic Emirate to power in 2021, Russia has found an opportunity to strengthen its influence in the country. Before this, it played a significant role in initiating intra-Afghan negotiations between the Islamic Emirate and other political groups in Afghanistan through the establishment of the Moscow format.
Since the return of the Islamic Emirate to power, Russia has strengthened its diplomatic and security relations with it. It provides military and intelligence advice to the Islamic Emirate and supports them, especially in the field of countering terrorism and extremism.
Russia's main goal in these measures: to prevent the expansion of Western and NATO influence in Central Asia and to secure Russia's southern borders from security and terrorist threats emanating from Afghanistan. Russia also seeks to establish stable trade and economic relations with Afghanistan.
4. The United States and NATO:
After the withdrawal of American and NATO forces from Afghanistan in 2021, the United States continues to monitor the country's political and security developments. The United States, particularly through diplomacy and partnership with international organizations, seeks to protect its interests and what it claims is preventing Afghanistan from becoming a haven for terrorist groups.
The United States has been one of the largest providers of humanitarian aid to Afghanistan. It has helped the Afghan people in the fields of education, health, and the economy through various organizations, including USAID.
But on the other side of the coin, the United States, along with NATO.
Now that Donald Trump has returned to power in the United States, seeking to resolve the Palestinian and Gaza crises, as well as Russia and Ukraine, there are again concerns about increasing US intervention to regain influence in Afghanistan, especially given Trump's numerous statements on the matter, and Afghanistan's move towards instability again.
5. Iran:
5. Iran:
The Islamic Republic of Iran has significant influence in Afghanistan due to its cultural and religious ties with Afghanistan, especially with the Shiites and Persian speakers of the country, and due to the fact that the two countries are located in a civilizational area with a common history and roots. Iran uses these ties to influence Afghan domestic politics and increase its influence among the people, especially in terms of helping and supporting them. On the other hand, the two countries have strong economic and trade ties, especially considering that Afghanistan is a landlocked country, and on the other hand, Pakistan's destructive economic and trade policies, and their economies are mutually dependent. Afghanistan, in particular, looks to Iran, especially its Chabahar port, as a window of hope to escape this blockade and gain access to open waters.
Of course, Iran has reacted, especially to the influence of the United States and Saudi Arabia in Afghanistan and the concerns it has about this influence, and has always tried to strengthen its position.
In general, the main goal of Iran's influence in Afghanistan is to strengthen security and economic relations with Afghanistan, especially in the field of energy and infrastructure projects, support Shiite groups in Afghanistan, and reduce the influence of regional and global rivals such as the United States and Saudi Arabia.
6. Qatar:
Qatar has played an important role in the peace negotiations between the Islamic Emirate and the United States, as well as with the former Afghan government and political groups. As a diplomatic mediator, this country tried to bring about a positive change in the negotiation process. Qatar was able to emerge as a trusted intermediary and, as a result, established close relations with the Islamic Emirate. It should also be said that the political office of the Islamic Emirate has been active in Doha for many years.
Maintaining diplomatic relations with the Islamic Emirate and playing a positive role in resolving crises and strengthening its regional position in the Middle East and South Asia are among Qatar's goals for influence in Afghanistan. Qatar seeks to strengthen its position as a diplomatic power in the Middle East and create a platform for resolving regional issues.
7. United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia:
But against Qatar, as well as Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are seeking to increase their influence in Afghanistan through economic investments and humanitarian aid. These two countries are trying to strengthen their relations with the Islamic Emirate, especially in the economic and security fields, although neither large investments from these countries have been seen in Afghanistan yet, nor significant humanitarian aid.
But in recent years, these two countries have been trying to strengthen their relations in Afghanistan by interacting with different factions of the Islamic Emirate, especially in the economic, political and security fields.
Taking advantage of economic opportunities in Afghanistan, establishing sustainable trade and economic relations, and maintaining a balance between the influence of Iran and Qatar in Afghanistan. Also, Saudi Arabia is seeking to strengthen its position as an Islamic and religious power in the region.
In general, different countries, considering their strategic interests, are trying to play a role in the political, economic and security developments of Afghanistan and maintain their influence in this country. These competitions and interventions can affect the future of Afghanistan and shape the future developments of this country.
But what ways are there to counter influence, especially the negative influence of countries and powers in Afghanistan?
1. Strengthening national sovereignty:
- Developing internal defense power: Strengthening the country's army and security forces with the help of countries that have had successful experience in this field can add to security and defense capabilities.
- Reforms in the governance system: There is a need to carry out serious reforms in the government and administrative system that will increase transparency, efficiency, and accountability against foreign influences. For this purpose, Afghanistan can use the successful models of government reform of other countries that have succeeded in building independent and corruption-resistant government institutions.
2. Active diplomacy:
- Strengthening diplomatic capacity in international organizations: Afghanistan can increase its diplomatic power by actively participating in international and regional institutions (such as the United Nations, the Central Asian Union, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization). Although a serious problem in this regard is the lack of recognition of the Islamic Emirate by the United Nations, international forums, and the world community, Afghanistan's participation in negotiations and diplomatic activities can help the country gain a stronger position against external pressures.
- Maintaining balance in economic relations with major powers: Afghanistan should use balanced economic and trade policies with global and regional powers such as China, Russia, Iran, India, Central Asia, and... This includes signing trade and economic agreements that help reduce dependence on a particular country. The experiences of small countries such as Singapore in this regard can provide Afghanistan with solutions to prevent the vulnerability caused by dependence on a particular economic power.
3.Strengthening civil society:
- Expanding educational programs to increase public awareness: Increasing public awareness about human rights, the rule of law, and how to counter foreign influence can be effective in reducing the undue influence of other countries in Afghanistan. Countries such as Ethiopia and Nigeria have succeeded in reducing negative foreign influences on their societies by expanding awareness and educational programs.
- Strengthening educational and cultural institutions: Establishing independent educational institutions that specifically focus on promoting an independent political culture and awareness of foreign threats can help strengthen the resilience of the Afghan people.
4. Independent Economic Development:
4. Independent Economic Development:
- Investment in Agriculture and Small-scale Industries: As a country with vast natural resources and agriculture, Afghanistan should have plans to increase domestic production, especially in the agricultural and small-scale industries. Countries such as India and Brazil have used this model to reduce dependence on foreign aid and create sustainable economic opportunities.
- Mining: Mining in Afghanistan can play a vital role in the country’s independent economic development, as Afghanistan has rich reserves of valuable minerals such as lithium, copper, iron, gold, and rare earth elements that are in great demand in global industries. Proper exploitation and transparent management of these resources can lead to the creation of extensive job opportunities, increase national incomes, and reduce dependence on foreign aid. In addition, investment in mining infrastructure can help develop related sectors such as transportation, energy, and processing industries.
- Completing multilateral projects with regional countries: Completing multilateral projects with regional countries, such as the TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) pipeline, the TAP (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan) power transmission project, railways connecting Afghanistan to Iran, Uzbekistan, China, and Pakistan, and other infrastructure projects, plays a key role in the country’s independent economic development. These projects not only make Afghanistan an important transit route in the region, but also pave the way for sustainable growth by creating job opportunities, increasing foreign exchange earnings, and reducing dependence on foreign aid. These cooperations also strengthen economic and political relations with neighboring countries and improve regional security.
- Research and Development (R&D): Given the need for new technologies to strengthen economic independence, Afghanistan can focus on research and development (R&D) in various economic sectors. Establishing reputable research centers and universities that can provide innovative solutions to the country’s economic and social challenges can help accelerate the process of sustainable development.
5. Regional Cooperation:
- Participation in joint security and economic projects: To address common threats, Afghanistan should engage more closely with its neighboring and regional countries in the security and economic fields. These countries can cooperate in the fight against terrorism, drug trafficking, and the establishment of a common energy network and the development of economic cooperation, as mentioned above.
- Establishing regional consortiums for infrastructure development: One way to address external threats and increase Afghanistan’s influence in the region is to establish regional consortiums for the development of joint infrastructure. Examples such as the cooperation among Southeast Asian countries (ASEAN) in the field of trade and infrastructure can be a solution.
6. Increasing oversight of foreign activities:
- Establishing independent oversight institutions: Establishing independent institutions that can effectively monitor the economic, political, and military activities of foreigners in Afghanistan can be effective in reducing foreign influence. These institutions must be fully transparent and able to enforce laws and regulations regarding foreign activities. In this regard, establishing oversight of the performance and activities of dozens of foreign aid institutions in Afghanistan is of particular importance, because based on past experiences, many of these institutions, under the guise of aid and charity, pursue other goals and programs that are not in line with the national interests and religious and Islamic values of Afghanistan.
- Preventing illegal economic influence: Monitoring foreign economic activities, especially in sensitive sectors such as mines and natural resources, is of great importance. Afghanistan should adopt models similar to those of countries such as Chile (in monitoring mining activities) to prevent illegal exploitation of natural resources.
7.Improving the education and media system:
- Support independent media and freedom of expression: Strengthening independent and professional media that are able to counter foreign propaganda and challenge false narratives can help prevent foreign influence. In countries such as Denmark and Sweden, where media freedom is fully preserved, these media play a key role in combating foreign propaganda.
- Establish media campaigns to counter disinformation: Establishing educational and media campaigns to combat disinformation and foreign propaganda can help strengthen public awareness in Afghanistan. These campaigns can help people recognize fake news and foreign influences.
Conclusion:
Foreign influence in Afghanistan’s political structure is a serious challenge that requires smart policymaking, public awareness, and effective enforcement actions. Afghanistan must minimize foreign influence and strengthen its path to national sovereignty through active diplomacy, independent economic development, strengthening civil society, and implementing a targeted media policy. The Afghan media and elites also have a key role in raising awareness and strengthening national unity to confront this challenge.
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