More than a military defeat, the fall of the strategic city of Al-Fasher has become a symbol of the redrawing of the balance of power in Sudan, where a government in exile rules from Nairobi and the army struggles to maintain the country’s unity amid political, security and humanitarian crises.
Publish dateTuesday 4 November 2025 - 13:14
Story Code : 334690
Afghan Voice Agency (AVA): On October 26, 2025, militia forces known as “Rapid Support” succeeded in taking control of the city of Al-Fasher, the last base of the Sudanese army in the Darfur region. This victory came after a fierce siege since May 2024, which was accompanied by continuous artillery bombardment, an almost complete cutoff of food and medicine supplies, and crimes against civilians.
With this move, these forces consolidated their dominance over five states in Darfur. This field development is the latest major turning point in the course of the war that has been going on for about two and a half years between the Sudanese army and militias supported by the Emirates, and it has dangerous political and security consequences for the future of Sudan and its territorial integrity.
The Arab Center for Political Research and Studies examined this issue in a note published in the Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed newspaper.
Reasons for the fall
Since the start of the Sudanese war in April 2023, major field developments have occurred. In the first year, the rapid support forces managed to gain extensive control, especially in the capital Khartoum, and capture strategic states such as Al-Jazira, Sennar, and parts of White Nile and Blue Nile.
However, in the following year, the tables turned in the army's favor; the capital and several states were retaken, and the siege of the city of Al-Abyad in North Kordofan was broken, and the army made advances around it. This development was a new starting point for the army to announce its move towards Darfur to break the siege of El Fasher.
In response, the Rapid Support Forces focused on operations in Kordofan and Darfur to restore the balance after losing strategic positions in the capital and central states. As the army advanced westward, the militias strengthened their positions in northern Kordofan and launched counterattacks to slow the army’s advance.
At the same time, attacks on El Fasher intensified, and the Rapid Support Forces benefited from logistical and field support that had arrived through the Chadian and Libyan borders. The fall of the city was therefore the result of a series of military, political and strategic factors that began in May 2024 and gradually changed the balance of power in the war.
During the siege of El Fasher, the Rapid Support Forces committed crimes against civilians, accompanied by continuous artillery bombardment and an almost complete cutoff of food supplies.
1. Political
The coalitions created by Mohammed Hamdan Daqlo (Hamidati), the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, played a significant role in shifting the balance of power and directly contributed to the city's fall. Local armed groups with tribal ties in Darfur, such as the Justice and Equality Movement (SEM) (Solomon Sandal branch), the Sudan Liberation Movement-Transitional Council led by Hadi Idris, and units of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (SLM-North branch) operating in the Nuba Mountains in Kordofan, joined the coalition.
The alliance was formalized in February 2025 with the announcement of a "establishment" government in Nairobi headed by Hamidati; Al-Hillo became self-proclaimed Vice President, Idris became the Darfur District Governor, and Sandal became Minister of Interior. The coalition provided critical logistical and intelligence support to the Rapid Support Forces around El Fasher and led to the city's fall despite Arab, regional, and international opposition to the government and its coalition.
2. Military
The besieged city experienced more than 250 attacks over a year and a half, including heavy artillery bombardment, drone strikes, and ground incursions to breach the defenses.
The rapid support forces’ acquisition of modern air defense systems neutralized the Sudanese air force, especially after the downing of two army aircraft in early 2025, which caused an almost complete cessation of air support.
While the army forces were short of ammunition and manpower, the rapid support forces benefited from hundreds of experienced foreign mercenaries. The prolonged siege reduced the morale of the defenders, especially after the fall of the city of Bara in North Kordofan, which had been the army’s main fulcrum for breaking the siege of El Fasher.
The fall of Bara was a severe blow that reinforced the feeling of isolation among the defenders and cut off one of the main supply and support routes, deepening the siege and making resistance more difficult.
3. Strategic
The role of foreign support was crucial in the militias’ takeover of El Fasher. UN and credible media reports indicated that the UAE had provided advanced military equipment, including British-made, to the rapid support forces deployed in combat positions around the city.
The UN Security Council also revealed that this equipment included products from the Emirati company Nimr and British companies such as Militec and Cummins UK, which gave the rapid support forces a tactical advantage at critical stages of the battle, including the use of armored vehicles and precision guidance systems.
This support was not limited to ammunition and equipment, but also included a continuous flow of military supplies through the Chadian and Libyan borders and the presence of foreign mercenaries from neighboring countries.
The analytical note continues by stating that for a real peace in Sudan, there is a need for a comprehensive vision that balances political, security and humanitarian needs.
Future implications
Given the strategic location of the city of El Fasher, its connection to a network of international borders and the significant population it houses, the fall of this city could be a turning point in the war path that redefines the military and political balances, unless the Khartoum government can contain its consequences.
1. Military implications
The complete dominance of the Rapid Support Forces over the Darfur region and large parts of Kordofan gives them a clear field advantage that will transform the military map of Sudan. This geographical expansion not only increases the operational scope under their control, but also strengthens the ability to maneuver and conduct multi-axis operations and exposes the army’s western front, especially with the reduction of supply lines.
Security risks in the northern and western regions increase, especially if the militants manage to secure the vital export route between Omdurman and Bara and control the areas of Ombadar and Sudri, which have airstrips, which could serve as bases for new attacks on the capital.
This dominance of northern Darfur provides access to supply lines through the borders with Libya, Chad, South Sudan and the Central African Republic, and increases the ability of Al-Dam Al-Sari to receive military and logistical assistance. It also paves the way for expansion westward towards Kordofan and an advance towards the Northern State; A state that is geographically linked to the border triangle controlled by militias near the Libyan border, providing a direct route for attacks on that state and increasing their ability to impose new realities on the battlefield.
2. The political consequences of dominating the Darfur region would strengthen the power of the emerging reality represented by the “establishment” government, allowing it to impose alternative governance in areas outside the control of the central government.
The announcement of the formation of a parallel government from Nairobi, despite international opposition, is an attempt to institutionalize ongoing developments on the ground, which in turn would weaken the military’s position in any future political negotiations, especially after losing control of Darfur, which would reduce its ability to defend the unity of the country, especially in a context of increasing regionalist tendencies.
Despite Hamidati’s emphasis on preserving Sudan’s unity, his statements on this issue do not hide his desires, which are tied to regional and international agendas, especially with the publication of reports about the UAE’s desire to control strategic ports on the Red Sea coast in the far east of Sudan.
3. The humanitarian consequences of the fall of El Fasher, which has a population of over two million and hosts hundreds of thousands of internally displaced people, are warning of a major humanitarian crisis. The danger is exacerbated by the killings and human rights violations committed against civilians by the Rapid Support Forces.
According to reports by the United Nations and the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, these violations have included ethnically motivated mass executions, organized rapes, starvation, and attacks on medical facilities, including a Saudi hospital where at least 500 patients and staff were killed.
On the other hand, waves of displacement have intensified. According to the International Organization for Migration, more than 26,000 people, mostly women, children and the elderly, have fled the city on foot, facing sexual violence and extortion along the way, with no safe passage out.
The executive director of UNICEF has said that “an estimated 130,000 children in El Fasher are at risk of serious violations” and that there have been reports of abductions, killings, mutilations and sexual violence. Large-scale displacements to Chad, Libya and South Sudan have also raised serious concerns about instability in fragile border areas and increased activity by cross-border armed groups, while more than four million people have fled to neighbouring countries.
Reports have revealed that the UAE has provided advanced military equipment, including British-made, for rapid support.
Conclusion
The fall of El Fasher is a major turning point in the course of the Sudanese war, which has seen major developments on the ground since its inception. This event has strengthened the power of the real in Darfur in the short term and deepened the political and field divisions that have existed since the Rapid Support Forces revolted against the army and state institutions.
However, the possibility of the army regaining the initiative and reclaiming the region remains. But this, in addition to a military reconfiguration, requires the development of a comprehensive vision that balances political, security and humanitarian needs and rebuilds state institutions on solid foundations; foundations that can overcome the effects of the war and provide a lasting peace to restore unity and stability to Sudan.
It also requires a firm stance by international actors against foreign interventions supporting the Rapid Support Forces, interventions that could repeat the humanitarian catastrophes experienced two decades ago in Darfur by the Janjaweed militias, a group now rebranded as the Rapid Support Forces.
With this move, these forces consolidated their dominance over five states in Darfur. This field development is the latest major turning point in the course of the war that has been going on for about two and a half years between the Sudanese army and militias supported by the Emirates, and it has dangerous political and security consequences for the future of Sudan and its territorial integrity.
The Arab Center for Political Research and Studies examined this issue in a note published in the Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed newspaper.
Reasons for the fall
Since the start of the Sudanese war in April 2023, major field developments have occurred. In the first year, the rapid support forces managed to gain extensive control, especially in the capital Khartoum, and capture strategic states such as Al-Jazira, Sennar, and parts of White Nile and Blue Nile.
However, in the following year, the tables turned in the army's favor; the capital and several states were retaken, and the siege of the city of Al-Abyad in North Kordofan was broken, and the army made advances around it. This development was a new starting point for the army to announce its move towards Darfur to break the siege of El Fasher.
In response, the Rapid Support Forces focused on operations in Kordofan and Darfur to restore the balance after losing strategic positions in the capital and central states. As the army advanced westward, the militias strengthened their positions in northern Kordofan and launched counterattacks to slow the army’s advance.
At the same time, attacks on El Fasher intensified, and the Rapid Support Forces benefited from logistical and field support that had arrived through the Chadian and Libyan borders. The fall of the city was therefore the result of a series of military, political and strategic factors that began in May 2024 and gradually changed the balance of power in the war.
During the siege of El Fasher, the Rapid Support Forces committed crimes against civilians, accompanied by continuous artillery bombardment and an almost complete cutoff of food supplies.
1. Political
The coalitions created by Mohammed Hamdan Daqlo (Hamidati), the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, played a significant role in shifting the balance of power and directly contributed to the city's fall. Local armed groups with tribal ties in Darfur, such as the Justice and Equality Movement (SEM) (Solomon Sandal branch), the Sudan Liberation Movement-Transitional Council led by Hadi Idris, and units of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (SLM-North branch) operating in the Nuba Mountains in Kordofan, joined the coalition.
The alliance was formalized in February 2025 with the announcement of a "establishment" government in Nairobi headed by Hamidati; Al-Hillo became self-proclaimed Vice President, Idris became the Darfur District Governor, and Sandal became Minister of Interior. The coalition provided critical logistical and intelligence support to the Rapid Support Forces around El Fasher and led to the city's fall despite Arab, regional, and international opposition to the government and its coalition.
2. Military
The besieged city experienced more than 250 attacks over a year and a half, including heavy artillery bombardment, drone strikes, and ground incursions to breach the defenses.
The rapid support forces’ acquisition of modern air defense systems neutralized the Sudanese air force, especially after the downing of two army aircraft in early 2025, which caused an almost complete cessation of air support.
While the army forces were short of ammunition and manpower, the rapid support forces benefited from hundreds of experienced foreign mercenaries. The prolonged siege reduced the morale of the defenders, especially after the fall of the city of Bara in North Kordofan, which had been the army’s main fulcrum for breaking the siege of El Fasher.
The fall of Bara was a severe blow that reinforced the feeling of isolation among the defenders and cut off one of the main supply and support routes, deepening the siege and making resistance more difficult.
3. Strategic
The role of foreign support was crucial in the militias’ takeover of El Fasher. UN and credible media reports indicated that the UAE had provided advanced military equipment, including British-made, to the rapid support forces deployed in combat positions around the city.
The UN Security Council also revealed that this equipment included products from the Emirati company Nimr and British companies such as Militec and Cummins UK, which gave the rapid support forces a tactical advantage at critical stages of the battle, including the use of armored vehicles and precision guidance systems.
This support was not limited to ammunition and equipment, but also included a continuous flow of military supplies through the Chadian and Libyan borders and the presence of foreign mercenaries from neighboring countries.
The analytical note continues by stating that for a real peace in Sudan, there is a need for a comprehensive vision that balances political, security and humanitarian needs.
Future implications
Given the strategic location of the city of El Fasher, its connection to a network of international borders and the significant population it houses, the fall of this city could be a turning point in the war path that redefines the military and political balances, unless the Khartoum government can contain its consequences.
1. Military implications
The complete dominance of the Rapid Support Forces over the Darfur region and large parts of Kordofan gives them a clear field advantage that will transform the military map of Sudan. This geographical expansion not only increases the operational scope under their control, but also strengthens the ability to maneuver and conduct multi-axis operations and exposes the army’s western front, especially with the reduction of supply lines.
Security risks in the northern and western regions increase, especially if the militants manage to secure the vital export route between Omdurman and Bara and control the areas of Ombadar and Sudri, which have airstrips, which could serve as bases for new attacks on the capital.
This dominance of northern Darfur provides access to supply lines through the borders with Libya, Chad, South Sudan and the Central African Republic, and increases the ability of Al-Dam Al-Sari to receive military and logistical assistance. It also paves the way for expansion westward towards Kordofan and an advance towards the Northern State; A state that is geographically linked to the border triangle controlled by militias near the Libyan border, providing a direct route for attacks on that state and increasing their ability to impose new realities on the battlefield.
2. The political consequences of dominating the Darfur region would strengthen the power of the emerging reality represented by the “establishment” government, allowing it to impose alternative governance in areas outside the control of the central government.
The announcement of the formation of a parallel government from Nairobi, despite international opposition, is an attempt to institutionalize ongoing developments on the ground, which in turn would weaken the military’s position in any future political negotiations, especially after losing control of Darfur, which would reduce its ability to defend the unity of the country, especially in a context of increasing regionalist tendencies.
Despite Hamidati’s emphasis on preserving Sudan’s unity, his statements on this issue do not hide his desires, which are tied to regional and international agendas, especially with the publication of reports about the UAE’s desire to control strategic ports on the Red Sea coast in the far east of Sudan.
3. The humanitarian consequences of the fall of El Fasher, which has a population of over two million and hosts hundreds of thousands of internally displaced people, are warning of a major humanitarian crisis. The danger is exacerbated by the killings and human rights violations committed against civilians by the Rapid Support Forces.
According to reports by the United Nations and the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, these violations have included ethnically motivated mass executions, organized rapes, starvation, and attacks on medical facilities, including a Saudi hospital where at least 500 patients and staff were killed.
On the other hand, waves of displacement have intensified. According to the International Organization for Migration, more than 26,000 people, mostly women, children and the elderly, have fled the city on foot, facing sexual violence and extortion along the way, with no safe passage out.
The executive director of UNICEF has said that “an estimated 130,000 children in El Fasher are at risk of serious violations” and that there have been reports of abductions, killings, mutilations and sexual violence. Large-scale displacements to Chad, Libya and South Sudan have also raised serious concerns about instability in fragile border areas and increased activity by cross-border armed groups, while more than four million people have fled to neighbouring countries.
Reports have revealed that the UAE has provided advanced military equipment, including British-made, for rapid support.
Conclusion
The fall of El Fasher is a major turning point in the course of the Sudanese war, which has seen major developments on the ground since its inception. This event has strengthened the power of the real in Darfur in the short term and deepened the political and field divisions that have existed since the Rapid Support Forces revolted against the army and state institutions.
However, the possibility of the army regaining the initiative and reclaiming the region remains. But this, in addition to a military reconfiguration, requires the development of a comprehensive vision that balances political, security and humanitarian needs and rebuilds state institutions on solid foundations; foundations that can overcome the effects of the war and provide a lasting peace to restore unity and stability to Sudan.
It also requires a firm stance by international actors against foreign interventions supporting the Rapid Support Forces, interventions that could repeat the humanitarian catastrophes experienced two decades ago in Darfur by the Janjaweed militias, a group now rebranded as the Rapid Support Forces.
avapress.net/vdceoe8x7jh8xpi.1kbj.html
Top hits
