Bab al-Mandab is not merely a maritime strait between Yemen and the Horn of Africa; this narrow passage is a vital link in the global trade chain, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and, subsequently, the Indian Ocean. Consequently, any security or political development along Yemen’s western coast carries implications that extend far beyond the country's borders, potentially impacting global trade, energy transit, maritime security, and the strategic calculations of major powers.
Events in September 2026 have highlighted this reality with unprecedented intensity. Following clashes with Saudi-backed forces, Ansarullah forces seized control of the port city of Mocha and advanced toward Dhubab and the strategic island of Mayun (Perim), located near Bab al-Mandab. Reports from Reuters and the Associated Press have confirmed the capture of Mocha and an island within the Bab al-Mandab strait, as well as mounting pressure by Ansarullah on this waterway. This development has elevated Ansarullah’s position from one of "long-range threat capability" to "on-the-ground presence in the immediate vicinity of vital shipping lanes."
Bab al-Mandab: A Chokepoint Extending Beyond Yemen’s Geography
The significance of Bab al-Mandab stems primarily from its geographical location. Situated at the southernmost tip of the Red Sea, the strait serves as a primary route for vessels traveling from Asia toward the Red Sea, the Suez Canal, and onward to the Mediterranean and Europe. The security of Bab al-Mandab is directly linked to the security of the Asia-Europe trade route.
Data from international bodies indicate that the Red Sea crisis in recent years has led to a significant decline in traffic along the Suez route and a corresponding increase in the use of the Cape of Good Hope route. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also documented a sharp decline in the volume of trade passing through the Suez Canal during the Red Sea crisis.
New data from the IMF’s PortWatch initiative also indicates a drop in maritime traffic following the escalation of the regional crisis in 2026.
Egypt has also suffered the consequences of this situation. Egyptian officials have estimated the losses resulting from shipping disruptions linked to the Bab al-Mandab crisis at billions of dollars. The significance of this issue lies in the fact that even a threat to shipping—without a formal or total closure of the strait—can trigger far-reaching economic consequences for regional nations and global trade.
Why have developments along Yemen's coast gained increased importance?
Yemen’s western coast has long been a theater of significant military and political rivalry. However, controlling locations such as Mocha, Dhubab, and Mayun Island carries distinct strategic weight due to their close proximity to the primary shipping lanes. Mayun Island is situated directly within the strait, and its location allows for the potential to influence maritime traffic through Bab al-Mandab.
Recent reports indicate that Ansarullah’s reach into Mayun and areas overlooking Bab al-Mandab has bolstered its leverage over shipping routes. Nevertheless, a distinction must be made between "controlling critical points surrounding the strait" and "exercising total, absolute control over the entire waterway"; the presence of foreign naval forces, the status of the opposite coastline, and the strait's legal and international framework remain pivotal factors in the security equation.
A power controlling a network of coastlines, ports, islands, and areas overlooking Bab al-Mandab does not necessarily need to formally close the strait. The mere capacity to pose a threat can be sufficient to alter the behavior of shipping companies. Recent experience has also shown that many major shipping companies have opted for the longer, costlier route around the Cape of Good Hope in response to heightened risks.
Therefore, the new equation should not be assessed solely through the concept of a "closure of the Bab al-Mandab"; the more critical factor is the "capacity to influence the risk associated with transiting the Bab al-Mandab."
From the Red Sea to the Global Energy Market
The significance of the Bab al-Mandab extends beyond commercial goods; the region plays a vital role in energy supply chains. Following severe disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea routes and the port of Yanbu have gained increased importance for Saudi Arabia, prompting Riyadh to divert a portion of its oil exports through these alternative channels.
Reuters reports indicate that oil flows via the Red Sea have experienced significant volatility in recent months due to security developments. Discrepancies in estimates from tanker-tracking firms regarding loading volumes at Yanbu suggest that the precise scale of these shifts requires cautious analysis.
At the same time, recent events have further underscored the route's importance. Reuters has reported that Saudi oil stockpiles at Yanbu have become increasingly critical following damage to alternative oil transport routes and escalating threats in the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, which transports oil to the Red Sea coast, has served as a key alternative route for energy exports in recent months.
This highlights a fundamental principle: the greater the reliance of energy routes on a limited number of chokepoints, the higher the geopolitical value of controlling—or threatening—those chokepoints becomes.
The Bab al-Mandab and Strait of Hormuz Equation
These recent developments take on added significance when viewed alongside events in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Bab al-Mandab is located at the southern end of the Red Sea, while Hormuz sits at the entrance to the Persian Gulf; yet both have the potential to impact global energy flows and trade.
Simultaneous rising insecurity in both regions compounds the concerns of global economic powers, as the issue is not merely the disruption of a single route, but the potential for pressure to mount on multiple vital maritime shipping lanes.
This situation is particularly significant for Asian and European nations, a substantial portion of whose trade relies on the Red Sea and Suez Canal routes. In 2023, the Suez Canal accounted for approximately 12 to 15 percent of It facilitates the flow of global trade, and any disruption along the routes leading to it could have direct consequences for international commerce.
From this perspective, the link between the Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz creates a critical geopolitical chain: disruption at either of these chokepoints places strain on alternative routes, while simultaneous disruptions drive up the costs and risks associated with trade and energy supplies.
**The Response of Major Powers: The US, Europe, Asia, and Regional Coalitions**
The United States and European nations view the security of shipping lanes as integral to their own economic security. Asian nations, too—heavily reliant on maritime trade for the transport of goods and energy—cannot remain indifferent to instability in this region.
In response to recent developments, Washington has sought to strike a balance between supporting Saudi Arabia and avoiding direct involvement in a new war in Yemen. Recent reports indicate that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has called for direct US military action against Ansar Allah; however, the Trump administration has refrained from direct intervention, opting instead to emphasize intelligence support and security cooperation.
This approach highlights the difficult equation the US faces in the current climate: on one hand, the security of the Bab el-Mandeb and energy transit routes holds strategic importance for Washington; on the other, direct entry into a new front could expand the scope of the regional conflict.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has also taken steps to bolster maritime security. In recent months, Riyadh has proposed the formation of a multinational maritime defense coalition. According to published reports, 15 nations have signed the declaration establishing this framework, and 13 have formally joined the coalition to date. Therefore, rather than attributing a fixed list of members to the group, it is more accurate to say that this initiative is currently taking shape and expanding.
Ansarallah and the Transformation of Geography into Strategic Leverage
Yemen possesses an exceptional geographical position: extensive coastlines along the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, proximity to the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and a location adjacent to one of the world’s most vital maritime routes.
In recent years, Ansarallah has demonstrated its ability to leverage this geographical position within its regional strategy. Maritime attacks over the past few years—including instances that forced ships to alter their routes—have shown that exerting influence over global trade does not necessarily require the conventional naval power of a major state; a combination of geography, missiles, drones, intelligence, and the capacity to create instability can transform a non-state actor into a significant player in international dynamics.
Recent developments have elevated this capability to a new level; Ansarallah’s presence in coastal areas and on islands near the Bab al-Mandab Strait has narrowed the gap between the "capacity to threaten" and the "capacity to exert sustained pressure." Reuters has also highlighted that the capture of Mocha and the advance of Ansarallah forces toward areas near the Bab al-Mandab Strait have strengthened their leverage over one of the world's most critical straits.
Conversely, officials affiliated with Ansarallah have emphasized the safety of shipping in the Red Sea. This stance must be evaluated alongside the actions of shipping companies and independent maritime traffic data, as a "declaration of safety" by a party to the conflict does not necessarily equate to a full return to normalcy for international shipping.
Can the Bab al-Mandab Strait Actually Be Closed? A distinction must be made between "total control of the strait" and the "capacity to disrupt maritime traffic." The Bab al-Mandab is an international waterway; under the law of the sea, the regime of transit passage through straits used for international navigation is of critical importance. Completely closing such a waterway would entail direct confrontation with a wide range of regional and international powers.
Consequently, realizing a scenario of "total closure" is highly complex and costly. Even recent reports regarding the advances of Ansar Allah speak more of increased leverage and dominance over strategic points surrounding the Bab al-Mandab than of a formal, complete closure of the strait.
From a strategic perspective, however, an actor does not necessarily need to fully block the strait. If the threat level rises enough to drive up shipping insurance costs, force shipping companies to reroute, and extend cargo transit times, a significant portion of the strategic objective has effectively been achieved.
For this reason, "disruption in the Bab al-Mandab" is more significant than "closure of the Bab al-Mandab."
Global Economic Consequences
Rerouting ships from the Red Sea to the Cape of Good Hope adds hundreds, or even thousands, of kilometers to certain voyages. Increased travel time, fuel consumption, insurance premiums, and transportation costs can ultimately drive up the prices of goods.
Experience from the previous Red Sea crisis demonstrated that disruptions along this route can place supply chains under strain. During that crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that the volume of trade passing through the Suez Canal dropped by approximately 50 percent year-on-year at one point. The World Bank also recorded a sharp decline in ship traffic through the Suez Canal and a corresponding increase in the use of the Cape of Good Hope route. Recent developments have once again highlighted this vulnerability. On September 14, Reuters reported that escalating maritime threats in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and disruptions to alternative oil transit routes have driven up shipping costs and tanker rates.
Thus, while the consequences of developments in Yemen may appear to be unfolding along the shores of the Red Sea, their impact can be felt in European ports, Asian markets, and in the prices of energy and even consumer goods across various nations.
New Security Dynamics in the Red Sea
Recent events signal that the Red Sea has entered a new phase of geopolitical rivalry. In the past, the region's security ...hinged on the presence of foreign powers and the cooperation of littoral states; however, non-state actors have now also acquired the ability to directly influence its security and economic dynamics.
This shift is also altering the concept of power in the Middle East to some extent. Large naval fleets, military bases, and conventional armies are no longer the sole determinants; a regional actor possessing a favorable geographic position—along with missile and drone capabilities—can impose significant costs on major powers and the global economy.
From this perspective, developments in Yemen should be viewed as part of a broader competition for control over, and influence upon, strategic chokepoints—a rivalry extending from the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
Conclusion
Today, the Bab al-Mandab Strait demonstrates more than ever that geography remains a pivotal factor in international politics. Situated adjacent to one of the world’s most critical transit points, Yemen—despite its economic constraints—can influence the calculations of major powers if it possesses the appropriate military and geographic assets.
Recent developments in Yemen have further underscored this reality. The advance of Ansarullah into coastal areas, the capture of Mocha, and their reach toward Perim Island (near Bab al-Mandab) have elevated the Yemen issue beyond a mere domestic or regional crisis, transforming it into a matter of international significance. Reuters, too, has assessed the seizure of these areas as a factor that enhances Ansarullah’s leverage over one of the world’s most vital maritime passages.
Ultimately, the core issue is not merely who will control the areas surrounding the Bab al-Mandab Strait; The more important question is who can influence the security, cost, and reliability of one of the world's most important trade and energy routes.
