Possible scenarios for the future of Syria under the control of different groups

In general, the different regions of Syria are divided as follows:
1. Opposition forces (HTS and Turkish allies): The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group and its allied forces control the northern and western regions such as Idlib, Hama, and parts of Aleppo. With Turkish support, this group has made major gains in recent months.
2. Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF): With US support, these forces have captured eastern regions of Syria, including Deir ez-Zor. The SDF is mainly led by Kurds.
3. Opposition forces in southern Syria: Daraa and Sweida have fallen to groups opposed to the central government. These forces are organized by the "Southern Operations Room".
4. Free Syrian Army (SFA): This group, which has direct US support, has captured southeastern areas such as Palmyra and is advancing towards Damascus.
5. Remnants of the Assad regime: After the fall of Damascus, forces loyal to the Assad regime have largely retreated to coastal areas such as Latakia and Tartus. However, these areas are also under heavy opposition pressure.
6. Limited presence of ISIS: In parts of the Syrian desert, ISIS is still active but has limited territorial control.

According to another division:
According to the latest reports as of December 10, 2024, the status of control of various regions in Syria is as follows:
Damascus and the central regions: After the fall of the Bashar al-Assad government, the Tahrir al-Sham group and other armed groups have taken control of Damascus and central cities such as Homs.
Coastal regions (Latakia, Tartous): These regions are still under the control of Russian forces and groups affiliated with the former Syrian government. The Hmeimim military base in Jabla is also in the hands of Russian forces.
Northern Syria (Aleppo, Idlib): Armed opposition groups, including Tahrir al-Sham, control these regions. Clashes between these groups and Kurdish forces have been reported in some areas.
Northeastern Syria (Hasakah, Qamishli): The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which are mainly composed of Kurds, have maintained control of these regions with the support of the US-led international coalition.
Eastern Syria (Deir Ezzor, Al-Bukmal): These areas are under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The United States has warned armed groups to avoid approaching these areas.
Southern Syria (Quneitra, Daraa): The Israeli army has entered Syrian territory and occupied areas of Quneitra, around Khan Arnabeh, and the strategic Jabal Al-Sheikh hill.
Northwestern Syria (Afrin, Al-Bab): Areas under the control of the Syrian National Army (SNA), which is supported by Turkey. Clashes with Kurdish forces continue in these areas.
However, given the rapid and complex developments in Syria, the situation of control of the areas may change rapidly.

Israeli Advance
On the other hand, according to the latest reports to date, after the fall of the Bashar al-Assad government, the Israeli army has openly advanced into Syrian territory and captured the following areas:
Jabal al-Sheikh (Mount Hermon): This strategic area on the Syrian-Lebanon border has been occupied by Israeli forces.
Quneitra Province: The Israeli army has captured areas including al-Naqeera by advancing in this province.
Southern suburbs of Damascus: Reports indicate the deployment of Israeli tanks near the city of Qatna, about 20 kilometers from Damascus, and the capture of villages and towns such as Arna, Baqasem, al-Rima, al-Haina, Qala Jandal, al-Husayniyah, and Jitta al-Khashab.
These developments indicate important changes in the field equations in Syria after the fall of the Bashar al-Assad government.

ISIS Presence
According to the latest reports, the ISIS group is still active in some areas of Syria.
Syrian Desert (Badiya al-Sham): The group is present in the central desert regions of Syria, especially in the provinces of Homs and Deir ez-Zor, and uses these areas to carry out guerrilla attacks.
Hasakah Province: Scattered ISIS activity has been reported in this region.
However, after losing territorial control, ISIS has turned to guerrilla tactics and surprise attacks. Taking advantage of regional differences and reduced counterterrorism efforts, the group has increased its attacks and is rebuilding its capabilities.

Future of Syrian developments
The future of Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in December 2024 is highly uncertain and depends on numerous domestic and international factors. These factors could lead to different scenarios:
1. Division of the country between different groups
Given the current fragmentation of Syria, there is a possibility of the country being divided between opposition groups, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and Turkish-backed groups. This situation could lead to the creation of semi-autonomous regions, similar to the model of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region.
The presence of international actors such as Turkey and the United States may also contribute to relative stability in some areas, but there is a possibility that Syria will become an arena for competition between regional and global powers.
2. Formation of a transitional government
The international community and some Arab countries may seek to establish a transitional government in Damascus that includes a wide range of political groups. This scenario could help rebuild the Syrian state structure, but it would require agreement among key actors inside and outside the country.
Support for such a process, particularly from the UN and international powers, would be key, but the problems stemming from internal and external disputes could be an obstacle.
3. Likelihood of continued conflict
The lack of a strong central authority and competition between armed groups increase the likelihood of continued civil war. In this case, Syria could become a “failed state” that is unable to exercise sovereignty over the entire country. This situation could lead to the growth of groups such as ISIS or other extremist groups, which would pose a threat to regional stability.
4. Role of external actors
Turkey is likely to seek to consolidate its control of areas in northern Syria and prevent Kurdish forces from gaining power.
The US may continue to support the SDF while trying to prevent Iran and Russia from re-entering Syria.
Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE will likely seek to rebuild Syria and build relationships with the new governments, provided that the country’s dependence on Iran is reduced.
5. Reconstruction and humanitarian crisis challenges
Rebuilding Syria’s destroyed infrastructure will be a major challenge. Western and Arab countries may provide financial and technical assistance, but this assistance will depend on political and governance conditions. The humanitarian crisis will remain a major problem, and migration and internal displacement may continue.

Conclusion
The future of Syria depends heavily on cooperation between domestic and international actors, managing tensions, and making key decisions about reconstruction and stabilization. In the short term, instability is likely, but with international support, a peace and reconstruction process is possible.