Afghan Voice Agency (AVA): Europe is going through difficult times, with economic recession and increasing political fragility in France and Germany.
Add to these the war in Ukraine and the return of Donald Trump to the White House. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on European industries. Such a move could lead to a fierce trade war and be detrimental to the region's exporters.
Jorge Descaler de Mazardo, ambassador and former director of the Spanish intelligence services, says: "Europe is the envy of the world. We have the best health system, the best education, the best roads, but the cost of these is very high. How long can we keep this up?”
“Europe is in decline, and as it loses its influence, its very high standard of living will also disappear,” he told BBC Mundo.
Descaler believes we are witnessing the end of a geopolitical era. He reflects on this in his latest book, The End of an Era: Ukraine, the War That Accelerated Everything, in which he examines how the war in Ukraine has accelerated the end of Western dominance of the world.
“This war is more than a border dispute over strategic territory. It is a response to profound geopolitical changes that have shaped the world order since the end of World War II. Today, the West is losing power and the influence of the global South is increasing.”
Europe's political fragility has been accompanied by economic stagnation: economic growth is forecast to be just 0.9% in 2024, and the region, which accounts for a fifth of global GDP, will lag behind other regions.
Analysts point to several reasons for this, including a loss of competitiveness, increased foreign competition and austerity policies.
Europe needs far-reaching reforms: increasing its military capacity, rebuilding its energy system, reshaping its technology industry and rethinking its stance towards Russia and China. At the same time, the discontent of its citizens has led to the rise of populist or far-right parties in several countries on the continent.
What is happening in Europe?
BBC Mundo examines the factors that have plunged the Old Continent into its current geopolitical crisis in an interview with Jorge Descalzar de Mazardo.
Why is Europe experiencing such a tense time?
In the 21st century, we are witnessing a war in the heart of the continent that seems to be a futile war for Napoleonic-style territorial expansion.
The invasion of Ukraine is the result of Russia’s dissatisfaction with the European security architecture inherited from World War II.
But this is a much broader phenomenon with global dimensions: many countries in the world are challenging the distribution of power and the rules that the victorious powers established after 1945. This means the end of a geopolitical era. In that year, some Western powers created the United Nations, the Security Council, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, that is, they divided power among themselves.
Now, 80 years later, France or Britain still have a seat on the Security Council, but India, with a population of 1.4 billion and a nuclear power, has no place on it.
Africa has no permanent representatives, and neither does Latin America. The United States still controls the IMF, and Italy has as many votes in the World Bank as China.
Where does China stand in this order?
China says: “I am a civilized state, I am beyond good and evil.” America does not say this, but it has always done so. Just look at Iraq and other places.
Europe today is a reflection of the state of the world, but this is more surprising to us because we imagine that Europe is above and beyond these developments.
It seems natural to us that people in Africa kill each other, but it is a scandal to us that this happens in Europe. There is a kind of racism in this thinking.
Do you believe that Europe still looks at the rest of the world with a ostentatious view?
I have no doubt. Europe has dominated the world for many years. It did this thanks to the steam engine invented in England, to its domination of the seas and, to a large extent, to slavery.
This attitude still exists, but Europe is making mistakes and is losing its place in the world.
Currently, 62% of the world’s GDP and 65% of the population are concentrated in the Indo-Pacific region.
Maps show Europe at the center, but the continent is looking out over an ocean where fewer events occur, as the world’s economic center of gravity has shifted from the Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific. Europe is clearly in decline.
You said that Europe has 6% of the world’s population, but it accounts for 50% of the world’s social spending. Is this sustainable? Has the welfare state model gone too far?
Yes, we have gone too far. In 1900, Europe had 25% of the world’s population, and now it’s not even 6%. With that, it still has 17% of the world’s GDP. We have the best health system, the best education, the best roads, but the cost of these is very high. How long can we maintain this situation?
We are the envy of the world. We were able to maintain this system for a long time because we dominated the international scene. But the reality is that no European economy will be among the world’s top 10 economies by 2050.
India has just overtaken the UK in terms of GDP.
Another factor that is showing Europe’s decline is its ageing and shrinking population, as deaths outnumber births.
What does this decline mean?
It means a loss of influence. Europe lacks a common foreign policy, a common military capability and not even a common energy or immigration policy.
If Europe is to continue to have weight in the world, it needs to become more integrated.
You say in your book that the war in Ukraine has brought Europe closer together, but with the UK leaving the EU (Brexit) and Germany’s possible reluctance to continue funding Europe due to its economic weakness, the future of Europe looks set to be more fragmented. What do you think?
The fact is that Brexit has weakened Europe, and the current fragility of Germany and France is not helping either. Frankly, I don’t think French President Emmanuel Macron will finish his term. But his support for Ukraine is unwavering.
Putin wants to restore the global influence of the Soviet era for Russia. That is his goal. But he doesn’t realize that he can’t. He can’t play in the international elite when his GDP is not enough, his population is old, and he only produces raw materials.
That is why he is trying to impose his influence by relying on his will and nuclear power, and this is very dangerous. When Europe defends Ukraine, it is actually defending itself.
The greatest failure of the Europeans is that they have not been able to include post-Soviet Russia in a security structure that would unite us all. But Russia has not had an easy path either, because instead of embracing democracy, it has increasingly moved towards authoritarianism. Perhaps NATO expansion would have been better if it had been done more slowly or with different considerations and concessions.
On December 8, Donald Trump reiterated that he would only stay in NATO if the Europeans “paid their dues.” What would happen if Trump carried out his threats and the US withdrew from NATO?
The United States cannot withdraw from NATO, because even if Trump threatened to do so, it would need a two-thirds vote in the US Senate, and he does not have that majority.
But what it could do is empty NATO. That is, pay less, allocate fewer troops, or refuse to automatically invoke Article 5 of the collective defense treaty.
And if it did, Europe would be left without money, without weapons, without nuclear protection, and would be alone and militarily powerless against Russia, because it does not have a common defense system.
The bullets that the Belgians make cannot be used in the rifles that the Czechs produce. Or the tanks that the French produce are not compatible with the tanks that the Germans make. We do not have a unified industry.
But according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Europe's military spending has surpassed China's.
The US defense spending is more than $900 billion, China's is $296 billion, and Russia's is $109 billion.
The total cost of the 27 EU countries is $321 billion. Actually more than China. But not collectively. Each country individually. Europe must unite, and if it does not, it will lose its influence in the world, and with that, its very high standard of living.
What could happen economically if Trump comes to power in Europe?
Tariffs of 10 to 20 percent would hit the European economy, but that is not the only issue.
Trump does not believe in climate change and will probably slow down the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.
If that happens, Europeans will find it difficult to compete economically with American companies, because the cost of our carbon pollution will be much higher than what Americans pay.
This will put us at a disadvantage in international markets.
Is this in Trump's favor?
Yes. Trump does not believe in a united Europe. He believes in European countries like Germany, France, Italy or Spain, but he does not believe in the European Union as an institution.
It is often said that America does not want a strong Europe, and this is true. But a Europe that is too weak, as it is now, is not in America's interest either.
You have said that Europe has made three mistakes: entrusting its security to America, its energy to Russia and its trade to China. Is there a way to change this situation?
The reports on this are very clear. Europe needs to invest 800 billion euros a year and create an industrial structure to save its economy.
In addition, for the first time a Commissioner responsible for defence has been appointed, who intends to coordinate the European military industry and, by integrating it, reduce costs and increase productivity.
Steps are being taken, but they need to be accelerated. I think it is time for a big leap forward and perhaps the coming to power of Donald Trump could be the impetus that Europe needs to take the necessary decisions.
More unity, more integration, a stronger Europe. The less united Europe is, the less global influence we will have and the faster our decline will be. The only way to prevent this decline is more unity and convergence.