Publish dateWednesday 7 June 2023 - 14:33
Story Code : 271374
Global climate change and its potential effects on Afghanistan
Jafar Hussain Karimi / Environmental challenges affecting the world such as climate change - water scarcity, loss of biodiversity and pollution are compounded by the gap between development demands, weak incentives and capacity for economic planning and development at the national level in developed and developing countries.
Global climate change is not a future problem. Earth's climate change, caused by human-induced increases in greenhouse gas emissions, is already having far-reaching effects on the environment: glaciers and ice sheets are shrinking, river and lake ice is disintegrating faster. , the geographical ranges of plants and animals are changing, plants are changing and trees are blooming earlier.
Effects that scientists have long predicted will result from global climate change are now occurring, such as loss of sea ice, rapid sea level rise, and longer and more intense heat waves.
Some changes (such as droughts, fires, and heavy rainfall) are occurring faster than scientists previously estimated. In fact, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)—the United Nations body established to assess the science related to climate change—modern humans have never before seen the changes in our global climate.
Scientists are very confident that global temperatures will continue to rise for decades, largely due to greenhouse gases produced by human activities.
The IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report, published in 2021, found that human emissions have warmed the climate by nearly 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 degrees Celsius) since pre-industrial times (since 1750). Average global temperature is expected to reach or exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius (about 3 degrees Fahrenheit) in the next few decades. These changes will affect all areas of the earth.
What is the difference between climate change and global warming?
The severity of the effects of climate change depends on the future course of human activities. More greenhouse gas emissions will lead to more climate change and widespread destructive effects across our planet. However, these future impacts depend on the total amount of carbon dioxide we emit. Therefore, if we can reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we may avoid some of the worst effects.
Sea levels will rise between 1 and 8 feet (2.4 meters) by 2100
Global sea levels have risen about 8 inches (0.2 m) since reliable records began in 1880. By 2100, scientists predict it will rise at least one foot (0.3 m), but possibly as much as 8 feet (2.4 m). , if we continue to emit carbon at our current rate. The sea level rises due to the added water from the melting of land ice and the expansion of sea water as it warms.
Even small changes in sea level can increase flooding, as storm surge and high tides combine with rising sea levels and land subsidence along coastlines to amplify flooding in some areas. Sea level rise will continue after 2100, as the ocean needs too much time to fully respond to warmer conditions on Earth's surface. As the oceans continue to warm, sea levels continue to rise.
Sea level rise is primarily due to two factors associated with global warming: added water from melting ice sheets and glaciers and the expansion of seawater as it warms. The first chart tracks global sea level change since 1993, as seen by satellites.
Small changes in sea level can increase flooding, as storm surges and high tides combine with rising sea levels and land subsidence along coastlines to amplify flooding in some areas. Sea level rise will continue after 2100, as the ocean needs too much time to fully respond to warmer conditions on Earth's surface. As the oceans continue to warm, sea levels continue to rise.
Climate change will continue in this century and beyond
The global climate is projected to continue to warm throughout this century and beyond. The degree of climate change and the severity of the effects ultimately depend on the amount of greenhouse gases released by humans and how they are released. The climate of the earth is to those publications.
Storms will become stronger and more intense
The intensity of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest hurricanes (Category 4 and 5), have increased since the early 1980s. Scientists predict that as the climate continues to warm, the intensity of storms and the amount of rainfall will increase.
More droughts and heat waves
Droughts in the Southwest and heat waves (periods of unusually warm weather lasting from days to weeks) are expected to become more severe, and cold waves to become less intense and less frequent.
All seasons are projected to continue to warm. By the end of this century, if we continue to emit greenhouse gases at current rates, extreme heat events that previously occurred only once every 20 years are expected to occur every year.
A longer fire season
Warming weather has made the wildfire season longer and more intense in the West, and a deep drought in the region has increased the risk of wildfires. Scientists estimate that human-caused climate change has doubled the area of burned forests in recent decades. It is expected to be about a year By 2050, the amount of land consumed by wildfires in the western states will increase between two and six times. Even in rainy areas like the Southeast, fires are expected to increase by about 30 percent.
Globally, fire weather seasons have lengthened. Drought is the main driver of fire spread, but recently fire activity has increased in some tropical and temperate regions due to warmer temperatures increasing the flammability of vegetation. The Arctic (Earth's northernmost forests) near the North Pole also experiences larger and more frequent fires, and this may increase in a warmer climate.
More wildfires and a longer fire season pose greater health risks from wildfire smoke, affecting tens of millions of people in the United States. Meanwhile, the cost of fighting wildfires has increased 11-fold over the past 30 years, adding to the financial burden of public health risk.
Changes in precipitation patterns
Climate change has an uneven effect on precipitation (rain and snow) around the world, with some areas experiencing increased rainfall and flooding, while others experience drought.
Future climate projections show that the recent trend towards an increase in heavy rainfall events will continue. This means that while it may rain less in some areas, when it does, heavy downpours will be more common.
The frost-free season (growing season) will be extended
The length of the frost-free season and the corresponding growing season has been increasing since the 1980s, with the greatest increase occurring in the western United States.
If greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow at current rates, an increase of a month or more during the growing season is projected by the end of the century in most of the world. If we reduce emissions of heat-trapping gases, this increase will be significantly less.
The global temperature will continue to rise
Recent research shows that both the current global temperature and the current rate of warming are unprecedented in the past 24,000 years. This trend is expected to continue, but reducing greenhouse gas emissions will reduce future warming.
The Arctic is likely to become ice-free
Sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean is expected to continue to decline, and if current projections are anything to go by, the Arctic Ocean is likely to be essentially ice-free by late summer. This change is expected to occur before the middle of the century.
The earth has only one atmosphere, so the effects of climate change transcend political boundaries. Afghanistan is one of the countries that emits less greenhouse gases in the world, but it is among the ten countries that are most vulnerable to climate change. The impact of this crisis in the increase of droughts, which causes hunger and poverty, is obvious, and unfortunately, it is now clear that 2022 will be another dry year in most parts of the country.
Like all other countries, Afghanistan needs to help because it is already affected by climate change. Afghanistan is geographically located in the dry belt of the world with high temperature and relatively limited rain and snow. This makes water resources one of the most important factors limiting development.
Globally, all production and development sectors require access to water resources, which puts pressure on ecosystems and biodiversity.
The 40% increase in torrential rains in Afghanistan and dry days in the western and southeastern regions of the country are also tangible consequences of climate change. Although it is not possible to have a specific share of the role of global warming on the local environmental consequences, in general, the occurrence of drought and the creation of dust springs in the country and region, which has led to an increase in the phenomenon of fine dust in the cities of the west, southwest and southeast of the country.
Another tangible effect is the increase in earth temperature and decrease in rainfall. Reduction of surface runoff in the spring season and reduction of hydropower generation capacity are other consequences of the decrease in rainfall in the country. Also, soil erosion and poor vegetation cover of the country's pastures are among the effects of global warming in the country.
The reduction of rainfall and local water reserves leads to the occurrence of social issues such as economic consequences in villages and the growth of migration from villages to the outskirts of cities and the occurrence of adverse social and economic consequences of marginalization and the loss of rural capital.
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